BY ANA RISANO
Insider Staff Writer
The North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management recently released updated population projections, with the estimated 2050 population for Moore County about 30,000 people fewer than last year’s projection.
Each year, the OSBM releases updated population data that is based on historical population estimates to model future trends. In 2025, it estimated Moore County’s population to reach 172,334 people by 2050. Now it is projecting a population closer to 141,000 by 2050.
“Because projections rely on assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration, the results shown in these population projections may differ from population projections produced in previous years,” according to a document on the projection methodology. “In addition, uncertainty increases with each year beyond 2024, so users should interpret longer term forecasts with caution.”
On Wednesday, the updated population projections were discussed by local officials who advise southern Moore County’s transportation planning group, called the Sandhills Metropolitan Planning Organization. The SMPO recently undertook an effort to collect data on the area’s growth to inform a traffic demand model that will be used in future road planning.
Part of that effort included setting an annual population growth rate of 1.75 percent for the model as it pertains to the SMPO area, which includes Pinehurst, Southern Pines, Aberdeen, Pinebluff, Taylortown, Whispering Pines and parts of Moore County.
The SMPO Governing Board decided in a 6-2 vote on that growth rate for the southern part of the county, wanting to accommodate a broader look of who is on the roads because the population estimate does not account for daytime visitors and commuters.
At a 1.75 percent rate, the SMPO area in southern Moore County is estimated to have a population of 106,268 by 2055. Combined with projections for the remainder of the county growing annually at 1.5 percent, the population would be about 173,000. That was just below the state’s previous projection for 2055.
Now the OSBM estimates the population for Moore County to be about 146,961 in 2055, about 26,000 people less than the SMPO’s projection.
“They came down considerably from the numbers that they had before,” SMPO Director Scott Walston said. “Last month this time, I was feeling pretty good about (our numbers) because it was actually a little bit lower or in line with what the Office of Budget and Statement had.”
But Walston said he remains comfortable with the numbers the SMPO figured, saying he only wanted to bring this information forward so everyone was aware of the state’s update.
Chair of the Advisory Committee and Southern Pines Town Manager Reagan Parsons agreed, saying he is also fine with the previous decision. He further noted that the SMPO has the ability to update the information in five years if needed.
“It’s a 20-year figure we’re talking about when we talk about that 20,000 gap” in population, Parsons said. “We get a crack at this every five years. Right now, at least, we’re not seeing any slowdowns from the recent trends. So I think since we’re building a travel demand model, and we get a crack at it in five years, I’m personally comfortable with where we landed at the end of last month.”
Pinehurst Village Manager Doug Willardson, who had opposed the 1.75 percent growth rate previously, suggested not changing it. The committee unanimously recommended keeping the decided on growth rate.
In other action, the Advisory Committee:
- received on overview on state and SMPO area safety data, including crashes and fatalities, with further discussion anticipated at the Governing Board’s meeting on Feb. 18; and
- was reminded of a public workshop on transportation goals scheduled for Feb. 9 from 3 to 6 p.m. at Assembly Hall in Pinehurst, 395 Magnolia Rd. More information can be found at www.sandhills2055mtp.com.
Contact Ana Risano at (910) 585-6396 or ana@thepilot.com.
